Wednesday, December 26, 2012

politburo joyan: Simple Abundance Exercises Can Change Your ...

Article title: Simple Abundance Exercises Can Change Your Mindset
Article Category: Self-Improvement

5 free summer clipart illustration of a happy smiling sun Simple Abundance Exercises Can Change Your Mindset

When you feel more prosperous, you will lead life of improved health, happiness and prosperity. However, when most of us think about our finances, most of the time we don?t have thoughts of prosperity.
Continue reading this article?

Source: http://www.medicalguide.pro/3374/simple-abundance-exercises-can-change-your-mindset-5.html

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Source: http://habit-bartel.blogspot.com/2012/12/simple-abundance-exercises-can-change.html

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Source: http://politburo-joyan.blogspot.com/2012/12/simple-abundance-exercises-can-change.html

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Source: http://cenovymol.posterous.com/politburo-joyan-simple-abundance-exercises-ca

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Glimpse the new face of job security

The Momentive Performance Materials plant near Albany, N.Y.,

By Kat Aaron Investigative Reporting Workshop

WATERFORD, N.Y. -- Momentive Performance Materials sprawls near the banks of the Hudson River, just outside Albany, N.Y., its silver silos and windowless sheds nestled in the low, rolling hills. Men who work there see deer on the road as they drive their pickups to work.

Inside the plant, the tranquility vanishes. It?s not just that the workers are handling toxic, explosive chemicals. That?s par for the course in silicone manufacturing. Many Momentive employees have been at the company for decades, back when it was part of General Electric. They accept the risks in exchange for a steady, sizable paycheck.

The problem is that the paycheck is neither as steady nor sizable as it used to be.


Apollo Global Management, a private equity firm, bought the former GE Advanced Material (Silicones & Quartz) in 2006 and renamed it Momentive. Two years later, in the middle of a three-year contract, Apollo slashed the wages of some 450 union workers by up to 40 percent. Suddenly, workers found themselves being paid what they had made 10 or 20 years earlier.(GE is a part owner of NBCUniversal, the parent company of NBC News.)

The Momentive workers were standing still, but the world was changing around them. A contract isn?t what it used to be. The men ? and they are mostly men ? at Momentive have what millions of unemployed Americans covet: a job. And not just any job, but a union job in manufacturing, the kind of job likely to get increasingly rare as right to work laws spread. But that job pays less than it did a decade ago, and many Momentive employees say they?re slipping backward. Some are losing their homes. This is job security in 2012, the new face of stability in the American workplace.

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Momentive produces silicones for dozens of familiar brand names. Its customers include Goodyear, Motorola, L?Oreal and The Home Depot. Its silicones are in caulks, gaskets, carpets and bedding. They?re the conditioning ingredient in ?2-in-1? shampoo. When Neil Armstrong took his one giant leap, the sole of his moon boot was made of silicone rubber produced at the Waterford plant.

Workers used to make 700,000 pounds of silicone gum every week at the factory, according to one longtime Momentive worker, who like many others interviewed for this story spoke on condition of anonymity, fearing retribution from the company. Now, he says they make less than 200,000 pounds.

It?s not clear if the overall production has declined or been shifted elsewhere. In addition to its factory in New York, Momentive has factories in Ohio and West Virginia, Japan, Germany and Italy. A finishing plant started up in Chennai, India, in 2010, as did a joint venture in Jiande, China. Another Chinese plant is slated for completion in 2013.

Momentive declined to share production information, but in a statement it said, ?Waterford continues to be an important facility in our North American network and we have recently consolidated our Silicones and Quartz divisional headquarters at this site. It is also critical that we continue to strengthen our global footprint, which will allow us to meet the needs of our geographically diverse customer base.?

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When GE spun off its silicones plant six years ago, the Waterford workers were apprehensive. They had a pretty good thing going, and most weren?t excited about a change. Back then, it wasn?t uncommon for a Momentive worker to take home $100,000 a year ? serious money for seriously skilled labor. ?I make more than some husbands and wives combined,? one man told me. But, he said, ?It?s not a perfume factory down there.? The plant operates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. The men say they regularly worked 60- to 70-hour weeks, including overtime. Schedules of seven days on, one day off, seven days on again were common, they say.

As the union negotiated its first contract with Apollo, it was bracing for major cuts, said Dominick Patrignani, president of IUE-CWA Local 81359, part of the Communications Workers of America, which represents workers at the Waterford plant. Apollo?s $3.8 billion acquisition of the company, completed in December 2006, was financed with more than $3 billion in debt, and workers figured the company would be tightening the belt.

To their surprise, the agreement reached was nearly identical to the previous contract under GE. The three-year contract, which covered two locals at the Waterford plant and workers at a Momentive facility in Ohio, was signed in October 2007. A company newsletter praised it, saying it ?locks in gains in pay and pensions? and ?retains key job security provisions.?

That didn?t last.

In December 2008, days before Christmas, more than 400 hourly workers at Momentive?s Waterford plant were called in to speak with their supervisors. One by one, workers were told that their pay would be cut, workers say. They would be assigned to new jobs, with new duties and wages.

In its written statement, Momentive said it has had to make ?difficult decisions regarding our operations in a challenging economic environment to remain competitive on a local and global basis.?

Workers were told that the pay cuts sought to bring their wages in line with the prevailing wage in the region, they said. But as several noted, others in Saratoga County don?t work with toxic and dangerous materials. Their wages should be compared to those of workers in the chemical sector, they said.

Those new wages also varied wildly, according to documents obtained through a Freedom of Information request to the National Labor Relations Board. One man, a 35-year veteran of the plant, dropped from $29.11 an hour to $17. Another, closing in on 20 years at the company, dropped from $29.11 to $19.50. A man with two years on the job kept his $29.11 wage rate. The longest-tenured worker, with more than 39 years of experience, went from $29.11 to $24. A plant services operator, hired in 1978, found himself earning $14 an hour ? a cut of almost $12 from his previous wage.

?Guys with a year or two of service ended up with a higher rate than I did,? said one longtime worker who has two children in college. Before the cuts, he earned $27.31 an hour His new hourly wage was $19.50.

The wage cuts were like ?an attack on my family,? another Momentive employee said. He has two children, too, and he regularly worked 70-hour weeks to ?give them a good opportunity to go to a good school, get a good education, without going into debt.?

If the company had proposed a 5 to 10 percent pay cut for all workers, including management and technicians, that would have been easier to swallow, several men told me. ?It was the arbitrariness that really pissed everyone off,? one said.

In fact, Momentive executives did take a 10 percent pay cut, in April 2009. But in January 2010, just as the workers? pay cuts took effect, the executives? ?temporary pay reduction? was reversed, ?as a result of the recovery in our business,? according to the company?s 2010 annual report.

As the Momentive workers saw it, the abrupt wage changes violated the contract signed in 2007, less than 18 months before the pay cuts were imposed. The local representing the affected workers filed 477 separate complaints with the National Labor Relations Board in January 2009, one for each affected worker. They asserted that Momentive ?has been engaging in unfair labor practices,? by changing wages, promotion, how people got overtime ? all things spelled out in the original contract.

The company argued asserted that negotiating wage and rate changes at the local plant level was allowed, under the terms of the national agreement. The company said the changes were needed to stay competitive and bring wages in line with the skills required.?

More than a year later, following months of investigation, the NLRB responded. The board?s regional director found that Momentive had indeed ?failed to continue in effect all the terms and conditions of the National Agreement.?? In other words, it had broken the contract. The order also found that Momentive had failed to bargain collectively with the union in violation of the law.?

The board sought an order requiring the company to restore the wage scale, rate, progression, job descriptions, and several other points. The board also wanted the company to pay interest on any back pay or other monetary awards.

The NLRB scheduled a hearing for April 5, 2010. That hearing got pushed to June, in hopes that the union and the company would reach a settlement, a common move in such cases.

But June 2010 was also when the original three-year contract ? the one Momentive had broken with the wage cuts ? was slated to expire. When Momentive executives proposed a deal, the union found itself negotiating a settlement and a new contract at the same time.

The proposed settlement was simple: the 400-plus workers whose wages were cut would get back pay covering their lost earnings. Going forward, though, they?d all be getting the new, lower wage, in their newly defined positions. The company agreed to a $2 an hour bump ? on the reduced pay. The NLRB case would be closed, ending any negotiation over job descriptions or the other issues in dispute.

Workers said the company dangled the settlement payments at the vote on the contract, held in the company firehouse at the Waterford plant. ?They had a box of envelopes, and the envelopes had statements in them with a number, how much money each worker would get in back pay, under the settlement,? one recalled.

They also warned that ?if you keep going with the NLRB action, it could take years,? several employees said.

By the time of the settlement proposal, which called for payments of more than $10,000 for many of the workers and more than $30,000 for some, many whose wages had been cut were struggling. ?They were just so desperate,? one said. ?They were just in a hole,? another added.

Still, workers in Local 81359 say they voted down the contract, preferring to move forward with the NLRB action.

But they weren?t the only local voting. The contract covers three bargaining units, including another local in the plant, representing salaried and technical workers, and workers at an Ohio branch. Although those workers didn't have their pay cut, and weren?t covered by the settlement, they had a say in whether it would be approved or rejected, because it was tied to the contract. Those locals voted to approve the proposal, and the contract was ratified. The Local 81358 workers got back pay with interest, but the wage cuts would stand.

Not everyone at Momentive took a pay cut.

Steven Delarge, a Momentive executive, received a bonus of more than $400,000 in 2010, in part for his role in ?the successful completion of collective bargaining agreements? with union workers, according to the company?s annual report. He also got a raise, bumping his salary from just under $400,000 to $450,000 in 2011. He has since left the company.

Momentive CEO Jonathan Rich received a bonus of $1.3 million for the year, The bonus was based on ?the achievement of applicable performance targets,? according to the company?s annual report, which stated, ?The Company achieved its primary environmental objective and, although it did not achieve its safety objective, the results were improved over the prior year.? Rich, who left the company in October 2010, also received severance payments of $975,000, and an additional $350,000, the reasons for which are not spelled out in company filings. His total compensation for the year was more than $6.5 million, according to company documents.

Andrew H. Walker / Getty Images file

Leon Black, shown here at the Museum of Modern Art's annual party in New York City in 2007.

The current executives, Craig Morrison and William Carter, are well-compensated, too. Morrison?s total compensation was nearly $3.5 million in 2011, Carter?s more than $2.6 million.

Apollo Chairman and CEO Leon Black is also doing well. Last year, he celebrated his 60th birthday with a blowout at his Hamptons home, featuring ?a seared foie gras station? and a $1 million performance by Elton John, according to the New York Times. Apollo Global Management declined to comment for this article.

Coming Thursday: After buyout, workers get a lesson in modern economics.

More from Open Channel:

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Source: http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/12/26/15907309-a-buyout-a-reorganization-and-the-new-face-of-job-security?lite

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Retailers lead U.S. shares lower; yen hits two-year low

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The yen fell to a two-year low against the dollar on Wednesday as Japan's new prime minister called for weakening the currency to stimulate inflation, while U.S. stocks fell, led by declines in retailers' shares.

Sales growth at U.S. retailers was projected to have fallen short of expectations during the holiday shopping season, according to preliminary estimates from firms that track retail spending.

The S&P 500 was down 0.5 percent, with consumer discretionary stocks among the hardest hit. The Morgan Stanley Retail index <.mvr> dropped 1.9 percent.

U.S. shares were also pressured as it appeared Congress will not negotiate a deal before January 1 to avoid the "fiscal cliff," a series of $600 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes that would slow the U.S. economy sharply unless lawmakers take action.

There is concern that potential tax hikes cut into U.S. holiday spending.

"With the 'fiscal cliff' hanging over our heads, it was hard to convince people to shop, and now it's hard to convince investors that there's any reason to buy going into year-end," said Rick Fier, director of trading at Conifer Securities in New York.

A U.S. official said on Tuesday that President Barack Obama may return to Washington from his Hawaiian holiday as early as Wednesday evening to resume talks.

A series of big decisions will wait until early 2013, when tax rates are scheduled to rise for most Americans. Economists warn that the world's largest economy could fall into recession as a result unless action - even retroactive - is taken to cushion the blow of higher rates and reduced spending that has helped bolster a weak economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was down 36.95 points, or 0.28 percent, at 13,102.13. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was down 7.08 points, or 0.50 percent, at 1,419.58. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was down 19.01 points, or 0.63 percent, at 2,993.59.

U.S. stocks have held in a tight range, recovering losses sustained just after the U.S. election in November. The S&P 500 is still up about 13 percent on the year.

The dollar rose as high as 85.74 yen on trading platform EBS, the highest since September 2010, following the swearing-in of Shinzo Abe as premier and was last at 85.64. The euro rose as high as 113.40 yen, a 16-month high, up 1.4 percent. The euro was at $1.3215 against the dollar, up 0.3 percent.

Abe is calling for a mix of aggressive monetary policy easing and big fiscal spending to beat deflation and weaken the yen. He is pressuring the Bank of Japan to adopt a 2 percent inflation target that would auger for a weaker currency, threatening changes at the central bank if his wishes are not met.

"The election of Abe has had a galvanizing effect on the dollar/yen exchange rate and he has been able to accomplish more in two months of jawboning than the BoJ has... over the past several years," said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management in New York.

Many markets remained closed following Christmas. European exchanges were largely shuttered, and Hong Kong and Australia were also closed. The MSCI All-World Index <.miwd00000pus> was down 0.2 percent on Wednesday.

U.S. single-family home prices rose in October for the ninth month in a row. The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 0.7 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, stronger than the 0.5 percent rise forecast by economists polled by Reuters.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury notes rose 4/32 of a point in price to yield 1.762 percent.

Brent crude climbed above $110 per barrel on Wednesday, hitting a two-month high, with investors hoping for a last-minute deal to avoid a U.S. fiscal crisis. U.S. crude futures gained $2.22, or 2.5 percent, to $90.83.

YEN WEAKENS

The weaker yen has bolstered hopes for better earnings from Japanese companies and underpinned the Nikkei, which has gained about 18 percent since mid-November, when the election was scheduled. The yen has lost nearly 8 percent against the dollar in the same period.

The Nikkei <.n225> closed at a nine-month high on Wednesday, with a 1.5 percent gain. <.t/>

Minutes of the BOJ's policy-setting meeting in November, released on Wednesday, showed that some board members said the central bank must act decisively, without ruling out any policy options, if the outlook for the economy and prices worsens further.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was little changed. Shanghai shares <.ssec> were flat, but stayed in positive territory on the year after a 2.5 percent jump on Tuesday erased 2012 losses. It is set for its first annual gain in three years.

(Additional reporting by Ryan Vlastelica, Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss and Edward Krudy in New York; Chikako Mogi, Ayai Tomisawa and Dominic Lau in Tokyo and Masayuki Kitano in Singapore; Editing by Richard Borsuk, Dan Grebler and Chizu Nomiyama)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/yen-falls-japan-forms-government-supporting-nikkei-001445158--finance.html

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Top Ten Excuses For Gaming During Family Gatherings - Features ...

The holiday season is always bittersweet. On one hand, most of us have a string of days off from work or school. On the other hand, we're expected to spend that time with our families instead of playing video games. Fear not! Here's a list of ten ways you can sneak away from the relatives and get in some gaming.

Excuse #10: "I'm just testing to make sure it works."
What could possibly be worse than opening a shiny new game on Christmas morning only to find out that it's broken? No one would want their child/sibling/parent/whoever to suffer such disappointment. Before you wrap that exciting new game up, explain to the powers that be that you should really pop it into your console and play the first couple of hours just to make sure it works.

Excuse #9: A Visit From Santa
If you're a gaming parent, Christmas Eve can be the perfect time to get in some digital entertainment after the children go to bed ? as long as you plan ahead. Keep a string of bells beside you as you play; if a sleepy little intruder does barge in on your late night gaming marathon, just give them a jingle, open your eyes real wide, and ask, "Is that Santa?" They'll spend the rest of the night staring at the chimney while you play into the early morning hours. God bless the gullibility of children.

Excuse #8: "I don't want to be rude..."
Most people would consider it rude to play video games when the relatives are over ??but isn't refraining from playing them even ruder?

This mind-blowing excuse turns the etiquette argument on its head. Consider the facts: a loved one went out of their way to buy you a video game that they know you'll love ? wouldn't it be inconsiderate to simply set it aside in the pile of other opened presents and pretend it doesn't even exist until everyone goes home? You always have to immediately try on the ugly sweater your aunt buys you in order to spare her feelings; the same rule should apply for games.

Excuse #7: "Think of the children!"
Here's another classic excuse that hinges on playing the part of the selfless relative. The rambunctious nature of little children often means that they get a free pass to do as they please at family gatherings ? as long as they're not torturing the dog or breaking stuff, no one really cares. Secretly ask your nieces/nephews/younger siblings/random neighborhood kids if they want to play video games ? if they say yes, you're pretty much obligated to play with them. Remember, you're not secluding yourself from the other adults to selfishly play video games; you're being the considerate guardian who's entertaining the children.

Excuse #6: An Answer For Everything
Smartphones have been a boon for stealth gaming; no one can see what you're doing on your private screen, and there's a wealth of valid excuses for why your eyes might be glued to your mobile device. Use that to your advantage during family gatherings by volunteering to answer any questions your relatives may or may not have by "looking it up on your phone."

Who invented tinsel?? How long should you cook yams? What the hell are yams? After playing a game for five minutes, reply to your waiting family member that the answer is yes. If it's not a yes or no question, just say the results are inconclusive. If someone questions why your phone is making video game noises while you're supposedly looking up answers, just say it's a state-of-the-art device like the handheld computer Al had in Quantum Leap.

Coming Up Next: Five more incredibly stupid ideas...

Source: http://www.gameinformer.com/b/features/archive/2012/12/24/top-ten-excuses-for-gaming-during-family-gatherings.aspx

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Tuesday, December 25, 2012

travel & leisure: The Many Benefits Of Hiring Limousine Services ...

By Cathy Franklin

Teenagers look forward to having their proms. During this time, everyone usually comes together to celebrate that cool school fever. The prom night reflects how girls and boys wish to flaunt their sense of style and fashion.

If you wish to display a cool, classy front during the prom, make sure you follow these tips to get you ready for that big party event you are extremely excited about:

Wear something stunning yet comfortable. One tip for you:avoid getting a suit or a dress a few days before the prom. If you want to look perfect on that day, search for your preferred wardrobe months and weeks ahead of time.

Get prom tickets ahead of time. This ensures that you have the best seats. How cool is it to be seated on the first row!

Coordinate with your date. Chat about color preferences and decide which color you should go for. Contrasting ensemble colors can be a bit of an eyesore.

What else might be missing? Well, you certainly need a car, a luxurious one that is. If you wish to experience the opulence of travel at its finest, then you hire limousine services. Renting a luxury vehicle is classy, an amazing choice for those who want to party hard and travel with a sense of luxury, security and fun.

Luxury vehicles like Limousine MPV and the maxicab singapore are often for rent in Singapore. These cars come with exceptional chauffeur services. When you go for a luxury vehicle, expect to be driven by skilled, veteran drivers. Limousine packages in Singapore suit different travelling needs and purposes, which can range from Singapore airport transfer service to road shows and parties.

Source: http://bidding-travel.blogspot.com/2012/12/the-many-benefits-of-hiring-limousine.html

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Cliff Negotiations Take Holiday Break (WSJ)

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Monday, December 24, 2012

Gold Price Forecast 2013, Buying Opportunity?, is Silver Cheaper ...

Financial Market Forecasts 2013

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 24, 2012 - 02:18 AM

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities

Gold and Silver bugs have had an abysmally poor 2012 against expectations for new all time highs, where a 1 year bear market from the August 2011 high into the May 2012 low failed to spark a sustained run to new all time highs. The rally from which petered out by early October at $1800, followed by another trend back to leave Gold at $1657 as per the last close, this despite reams and reams of material plastered all over the internet that hoped for an eventual return to a gold standard or "Sound Money" as being the ultimate outcome of our ongoing global debt and money printing crisis.

However, it is never going to happen, or rather not under any western style democracy, for this I don't need to indulge myself in in-depth analysis but direct readers attention to what continues to take place in the Euro-zone where the PIIGS countries having adopted pseudo sound money of the Euro have found themselves in the precise predicament of where they would be had they had a Gold standard, namely that they are unable to just print debt and money to buy votes with the stealth default consequences of inflation, whilst on the other hand we have the examples of the United States and UK that can and do print debt and money in ever expanding volume as they seek to buy up their own bonds (via central banks buying from bankrupt banks who borrow form the central banks to do so) and thus subvert the official debt to GDP ratios as I recently discussed in length (03 Dec 2012 - Bank of England Cancels Britain's Debt) with the below graph illustrating the money and debt printing / cancellation highly inflationary game that Britain is playing.

So, if you have read any of my articles over the past few years you will know that the only answer that the governments of the world have is to print money and debt to inflate the debt and liabilities away, Sound money or even pseudo sound money prevents them from doing so and therefore ensures a deflationary depression, instead we are emerged in an inflationary depression which given the real world comparisons appears to be infinitely far more palatable to the masses and therefore explains why it is every government and central banks default setting.

So Gold bugs looking for sound money to turn Gold into Currency will probably find that their descendants will still be waiting a for such an outcome. Ironically, if Gold never becomes money (in our life-times anyway) it is still good news for if it were then it would probably mean that Gold's future prospects would not be as good as they are under our fiat currency money / debt printing exponential inflation inducing monetary system as governments would seek to dictate what the price of gold should be rather than the current system of manipulation of all markets to varying degrees.

Now, whilst it has been been a long time since I last analysed or traded Gold and Silver. However, if you have been reading my articles you will be aware of the prevailing exponential inflation mega-trend as a consequence of government debt and money printing that continues to exert upwards pressure on asset prices and even more so when leverage is taken into account, therefore following the recent sell off in gold to $1660, a good 14% below its 2011 peak, which is perking my interest in the safe haven precious metals that this analysis seeks to resolve the probable trend for 2013.

Gold Forecast 2010-2012

My last in depth analysis of Gold and Silver was several years ago at the start of November 2009 (01 Nov 2009 - Gold Bull Market Forecast 2009, 2010 Update)that was updated for the January 2010 Inflation Mega-trend ebook (Free Download).

At the time Gold was trading at $1035, and the forecast for Gold was for a rally to a minimum of $1333 by late 2010 and a longer-term target of $2,000 for 2011, which is pretty much what came to pass during the next few years.

Gold can expect to gyrate towards its target of $1333 by late 2010, and continue further on into 2011 as the Gold price continues to look set to trend towards $2,000 which should be easily achievable within the next 3 years.

Gold Secular Bull Market

From 1980 to 1999 Gold fell for 20 years, eventually it would bottom and embark on a bull market, eventually, the signs for this would be not in fundamental data, but contained within the price chart as Gold breaks the pattern of corrective rallies followed by the downtrend resuming to new bear market lows. Some 10 years later (into mid 2011) Gold corrected the preceding secular bear market by 50% in time and well over 100% in price. The subsequent trend has seen what resembles a multi-year consolidation of that preceding bull run.

Central Banks Buying Gold - For many years central banks were net sellers of gold but over the past year have been buying at the rate of about 10% of annual new supply. Though don't expect central bank buying to create a price spike as they would seek to avoid such an outcome by instead buying the dips.

Global Quantitative Easing aka Money Printing Hedging

We are in a new world (for the west anyway) and that is a world of Quantitative Easing, the more the governments of the world print money and monetize debt the easier it is for governments to keep printing and monetizing ever escalating amounts of government debt to cover the government budget deficit gaps. Upon which the accelerant of the Quantum of Quantitative Easing has been poured i.e. Governments paying themselves interest on monetized debt (20 Jul 2012 - The Quantum of Quantitative Easing Inflation is Coming! )

The US Fed recently revealed that its priority now is to target 6.5% Unemployment (7.7%) rather than inflation, in which respect it is engaged in a policy of QE4Ever -(01 Oct 2012 - Socialist Global Central Bank Crime Syndicate QE-4-Ever Inflation Theft)

What this means is collective currency devaluation where relatively there appears to be little change in currency rates but in real terms the flood of money consequences is for upward pressure on commodity prices and other scarce resources, after all the supply of resources is mostly known and the population of the world is not decreasing so the demand is known to be on an upward curve. Therefore as long as the central bankers are embarked on escalating quantitative easing that continues to put upwards pressure under the gold price and other commodities as it increases inflation expectations and therefore inflation hedging using gold and more liquid commodities such as crude oil.

Therefore in terms of Gold price action, we can expect the central banks to have effectively put a floor under the Gold price which the price charts implies is around $1550.

ZIRP - Zero interest rates are likely to continue until the markets force the central banks hands, which is something that there is no sign of at this point. ZIRP is a strong positive for Gold due to negative real interest rates and therefore indicates continuing upwards pressure on Gold price for as long as ZIRP continues.

Inflation Driving Gold Price?

The above graph clearly illustrates that even on the official CPI inflation measure (which tends to under report real inflation), that the US is no different to any other country which contrary to the delusional deflation propaganda is instead immersed in what has always been an exponential inflation mega-trend which vested interests and what can be only termed as deflation fools have been blindly regurgitating the threats ever since the Great Recession of the 2008-2009, which the above graph clearly illustrates amounted to nothing more than a mere blip or as I warned at the time of a deflationary ripple on the surface of an ocean of Inflation.

The Inflation Mega-trend Ebook of Jan 2010 (FREE DOWNLOAD), re-iterated that asset prices tend to be LEVERAGED to Inflation, which is precisely the trends that have subsequently transpired from stocks to commodities such as Gold and as I have been flagging during 2012, the housing markets, in which respect I will be taking a detailed look at the US housing market in the near future, ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this in-depth analysis and concluding trend forecast in your email in box.

However, even when taking into account Gold being leveraged to the Inflation Mega-trend, Gold rising by more than 300% over the past 10 years is well beyond the rise in CPI of 29%, so is much more a sign of a great deal of speculative interest than being driven by fundamentals. And another point for the Gold bug to consider is that in the late 1970's inflation was running at more than 10% per annum!

So whilst gold has not experienced a bubble spike, however it's relentless 10 year slog higher has accumulated much speculative interest that the subsequent 1.5 year corrective trend has been seeking to unwind, which still remains well above that which pure inflation indexation would have delivered over the same time period even after allowing for leverage, so one cannot look to the ongoing inflation mega-trend to generate additional over leveraged gains, instead the same trends imply that Gold needs to further dissipate speculative interest and therefore implies a continuation for a trading range.

U.S. Dollar Collapse?

One of the calls for why Gold will go higher is due to a sharp drop or even collapse of the US Dollar that many proponents have been stating for over the past 3 years. However the actual dollar trend shows that the dollar is in fact little changed. This is not as a consequence of dollar strength but that all currencies are in a state of perpetual free-fall against one another that manifests itself in asset and consumer price inflation.

The chart also shows synchronicity between Gold and USD trends i.e. there are times when Gold and USD move with each other and at other times against. Current price action has both in synch in terms of trend, such cycles tend to persist for about 6 months, which implies the current phase has another 3 months to run. A quick take on the USD implies a continuing trading range.

Gold Annual Percent Change

The annual % change graph further illustrates that whilst Gold has not experienced a short-term price spike along the lines of that of 1979, however one can see that it has experienced several spikes that were spread out over a number of years i.e. into 2003, 2007 and 2010. With the intra-2011 spike not registering as Gold experienced a sharp sell off into the end of that year.

What does this suggest for Gold going forward ?

That the best gains for the gold bull market are probably behind us, i.e. that Gold despite intra-year spikes is unlikely to experience annual gains of much more than about 10% per year with the probable range of between +4% and +10% per annum, which is the year end range one can expect for Gold for 2013, or a target price of between $1726 and $1826, which is not exactly what many gold bugs will be dreaming of i.e. a 1970's style spike for which I do not see any signs of materialising at least for several years, let alone for Gold to actually hold a break to new all time highs thus probability favours the bull market continuing at a far more subdued rate. So another warning not to get carried away by the uttering's from a long list of Gold bugs such as Marc Faber and Jim Rogers who keep banging the drums for a bubble spike that may never materialise (over the next 5 years).

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - The elliott wave pattern implies that Gold had an ABC corrective pattern into June 2012 since which it has had an impulse wave 1, and in the midst of coming to an end of a wave 2 correction, and therefore implying that Gold is set for an Impulse wave 3 to new all time highs! i.e. the elliot wave pattern is strongly bullish, which is contrary to most of this analysis. However rather than entertaining alternative counts that will only seem probable with the benefit of hindsight, in this analysis I am discounting elliott wave as not giving me a reliable probability, the picture is just too neat, for it to actually materialise.

TREND ANALYSIS - Gold repeatedly failed to hold the uptrend lines which keeps resolving in breaks lower. That is the pattern that the current trend line support suggests as being most probable, i.e. an imminent bounce higher towards $1710 and then another break of the trendline support which would target a trend towards $1550. Furthermore shallow trendlines imply less volatile trends for 2013, i.e. shallow up and down trends within the prevailing range.

SUPPORT / RESISTANCE - Gold is in a range trading channel, the main resistance is at $1800 and support at $1550, with a break above $1800 targeting $1900. Whilst support at $1550 looks quite strong, thus suggests a strategy of buying downtrends towards $1550 for range rallies to $1800, with potentials for a break higher that would next target resistance at $1900. Current price action in terms of the range appears to resolve towards $1550 during Q1 2013, before we can expect the next assault on $1800.

However the problem with ranges is that it is difficult to determine at what point the price breaks out, and the ultimate probability is for Gold to break higher, to first $1900 and then $2000 and the longer the range goes on the harder it tends to become for the price to actually breakout and therefore more difficult to forecast. Which means given the 18 months to date, gold could stay stuck in this range for the whole of 2013.

PRICE TARGETS - The immediate target is a low above $1550, the reaction from which suggests $1800.

MACD - The MACD indicator is weak and showing no signs of an imminent bottom, in fact it is confirming that Gold could trend lower for at least another month into late January which would time with the probability for a continuing downtrend towards $1550 and a risk that Gold could remain weak even into late February.

SEASONAL TREND - There is a strong seasonal tendency for gold to rally from November through January, however Gold is clearly not following the seasonal trend which implies inverse expectations. Therefore a weak Jan, Feb and stronger March and April.

Gold - Silver Ratio - Which is Cheaper?

On face value the gold-silver ratio chart implies that Silver is cheap. BUT Silver is heavily dependant upon sentiment, i.e. it needs a strong trend for gain against Gold. Whilst in a shallow trend or a trading range will continue to see silver increasingly lag behind Gold, which means that whilst Silver is cheaper than Gold, given expectations for a continuation of the Trading range, silver could yet get even cheaper relative to Gold i.e. as was the case during the first half of 2010.

However should Gold breakout higher above $1800 we will see Silver start to significantly outperform, so I will definitely be keeping an eye on silver especially near Gold lows of $1550 as it would be trading at deeper discount.

Gold Risks of a Down Year

Gold has not had a down year for 12 years! Add to that expectations of a trading range of 1800 to 1550. Throw in a close of $1660, and annual volatility of 20% and then that implies a 40% risk of a down year, i.e. a close below $1660, which could yet worsen if Gold rallies into the end of the year i.e. Gold closing the year at say $1710 would imply a 60% chance of a down year, whilst a close at $1600 would imply just a 20% risk of a down year.

The bottom line is that whilst the Gold bull market will likely continue until ZIRP ends, however Gold bugs are not going to like hearing that the best years of gains are now probably behind gold, and that the best they can expect to achieve is gains of about 10% per annum as Gold is now in a mature bull market. Therefore my analysis resolves to the following key conclusions for 2013 -

1. That Gold looks set to trade within a range for most of the year of between $1550 and $1800.

2. That Gold should trend higher towards the end of the year with overall probability targeting a year end close in the region of $1760, which on the last close of $1660 implies a gain of about 6%, with a 40% risk of a small down close year i.e. between $1659 and $1550.

The below graph better illustrates how the Gold price could trend during the year.

Gold Price Forecast 2013

The risks to the forecast are that the Gold price breaks higher to first target $1900.

My Gold Investing / Trading Strategy

I will be adopting two potential strategies.

1. I will eye accumulating Gold when it is sub $1580 for long-term investments, probably upto 6% of total portfolio (Gold and Silver). Silver offers the better long-term opportunity in terms of risk vs reward off of the lows due to expectations for a deeper discount and greater long-term potential.

2. I will attempt to trade the range when opportunities arise i.e. buy off of $1550 triggers and exit from $1800 triggers. With the risk of an ultimate breakout higher I will refrain from trading the short-side. Also remember trading commodities is extreme high risk!

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Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38201.html

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright ? 2005-2012 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of three ebook's - The Inflation Mega-Trend; The Interest Rate Mega-Trend and The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 that can be downloaded for Free.

Stocks Stealth Bull Market Ebook DownloadThe Interest Rate Mega-Trend Ebook DownloadThe Inflation Mega-Trend Ebook Download

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 600 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

? 2005-2012 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38201.html

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