RPI: All in the top 54
Record: Each team has a minimum of 22 wins and a maximum of two conference losses.
Teams: Akron, Belmont, Bucknell, Louisiana Tech and Middle Tennessee
Before we dive in, can we just agree that there needs to be more of a division between the 32 conferences than just major or mid-major? Lumping the A-10 and Mountain West into the same group as the MEAC and SWAC is absurd. Please suggest an alternative approach in the comments.
In case you haven?t noticed, some of the teams receiving the ?Up? designation are a bit of a stretch, while it wouldn?t be too difficult to find at least another eight to 10 bubble teams worthy of a downgrade.
However, we can?t have 20 teams going down and only five going up. The bubble is like an elaborate combination of teeter-totters. In order for that many teams to be on the decline, there needs to be a roughly equivalent number of teams on the rise.
These ?mid-major? conference tournament favorites are the primary beneficiaries of bubble chaos. Even if we assume that each of these teams has an 80 percent chance of winning its tournament, that leaves a 67 percent chance that at least one of these teams will fail and land on the bubble.
If that does happen, that team will have a better profile than a good number of the other teams discussed in this article.
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